Market Update – November 20, 2020

 

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better-informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact Patriot Energy Group for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as the main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

 

Estimates for week ending 11/13/20 were for an injection in the 20 to 21 Bcf range. Actual results below:

 

The total actual injection came in well above the estimates, with 31 Bcf being put into storage; storage is now 293 Bcf higher than last year, and 231 Bcf higher than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-yr historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 11/25/20 are for a small withdrawal or injection in the range of around (3) to 3 Bcf.

 

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 future prices started below the 52-week average in November 2019 before dropping further for the start of the new year. Prices have had a volatile ride since then, hitting a new low at the beginning of March before quickly rallying up above the average for the beginning of May. Since then prices first fell back towards and then surged right back up to hit a new 52-week high. However, prices have just come off sharply and are now closer to the 52-week average. Currently Henry Hub prices are down about 11.4% from October 30th’s 52-week high, which is above the average by about 8.3%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 future prices started near the 52-week high last year, and they continued to range there for the fall. The story for Algonquin Calendar Year 2021 prices changed drastically as 2020 started. Prices first cratered in January, and then they continued to hit new low after new low, with the lowest point coming in mid-March. Since March prices recovered thru the summer and into the fall, pushing above the average and trending towards the 52-week high. However, prices have just crashed and are now close to the 52-week low. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 16.9% from the 52-week high that was last November, and below the average by around 7.2%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

 

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2021 future prices ranged closer to the 52-week high from last November 2019 thru the end of 2019. At the start of 2020 the future prices fell off a cliff, with ISO-NE Calendar 2021 future prices hitting a new low at the end of March. Since March prices recovered thru the summer and into the fall, pushing above the average and trending towards the 52-week high. However, prices have just crashed below the 52-week average to the midpoint between the low and average. Currently ISO-NE prices are down around 13% from the 52-week high that was last November, and below the average by around 3.7%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

 

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 future prices started close to the 52-week average around the same time last year in November. From there TETCO-M3 2021 future prices ranged a little below the average during the fall of 2019. Prices then fell sharply during the winter to hit a new low at the start of February. Since then TETCO-M3 2021 prices rallied off the lows, pushed above the average, and recently spiked all the way up to establish the new 52-week high at the end of October. However, a huge price crash just happened that now have TETCO-M3 2021 prices back below the 52-week average. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down around 16.8% from Oct 30th’s 52-week high, and below the average by around 4.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison, there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2021 future prices ranged mostly above the average during the fall of 2019, hitting a high point in late November 2019. PJM 2021 future prices then cratered for the winter to hit a new low at the beginning of March. Since then prices rallied off the lows, pushed above the average, and recently spiked all the way up to establish the new 52-week high near the end of October. However, prices just had large crash that now have PJM 2021 prices back down below the 52-week average. Currently PJM prices are around 9.2% below October 21st’s 52-week high, and below the average by about 1.9%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Patriot Energy does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.

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