Market Update – May 7, 2020

 

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact Patriot Energy Group for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there is more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the long-term outlooks, we compare what the market was expecting to be each week (injection or withdrawal number) verse what actually took place, this will either push prices up or down respectively.

 

Estimates for week ending 5/1/20 were for an injection in the 108 to 109 Bcf range. Actual results below:

The total actual injection was in line with the estimates, with 109 Bcf being put into storage; storage is now 796 Bcf higher than last year, and 395 Bcf higher than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-yr historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 5/8/20 are an INJECTION in the range of around 106-112 Bcf.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average at the start of August and continued to come off to range below the average for most of the fall. There was a short-lived price rally in November, but prices ended up coming off sharply throughout the winter. Prices recently hit a new low at the beginning of March, but since then prices have rallied and rocketed all the way up to just hit a new high point, which prices are still close to. Currently Henry Hub is just below May 4th’s 52-week high by 1.9% and above the average by about 8.9%.  

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices ranged above the 52-week average for most of 2019 aside from two quick dips close to the average in July and August. Then as the new year started prices cratered to hit new low after new low, with the lowest point coming in mid-March. However, since establishing a new low, prices have rebounded and are now at a midpoint between the low and average. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 18.6% from the 52-week high that was last May, and below the average by around 9.1%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2021 prices first dipped below the rolling 52-week average in July before prices moved up to range a little above the average for the rest of the summer and fall. Since then prices have fallen off a cliff. Prices recently hit a new low at the end of March, although they have rebounded a bit over the past several weeks. Currently ISO-NE prices are down around 17% from the 52-week high that was last May, and below the average by around 7.8%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices had a huge jump in January 2019 when pipeline problems resulted in a pipeline explosion on January 21st. Prices then continued to climb to hit the 52-week high in April 2019. TETCO-M3 2021 prices first dipped below the rolling 52-week average in July and then came off further throughout the summer, hitting a low point in late August. Prices then spiked as we entered September and continued to climb over the average thru November. After that prices fell precipitously for the winter to hit a new low at the start of February. However, since then prices have rallied off the lows and have just had a huge spike to almost hit a new high. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down around 1.2% from the 52-week high last May, and above the average by about 5.8%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

 

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

 

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2021 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in July and then continued to range around the average for the rest of the summer and fall. Then there was a small spike in late November when prices went further above the average. Prices then cratered for the winter to hit a new low at the beginning of March. However, prices recently rallied off the lows and are now ranging a little above the 52-week average. Currently PJM prices are down around 6.1% from the 52-week high last May, and above the average by about 2.4%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Patriot Energy does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.

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