Blog

Market Update – January 9, 2020

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact Patriot Energy Group for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there si more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the longer term looks, comparing what the market was expecting to be released each week on Thursday at 10:30am ET as the as the injection or withdrawal number versus what actually took place pushes prices up or down respectively.

Estimates for week ending 1/03/20 were for a withdrawal in the 50 to 52 Bcf range. Actual results below:

Actual withdrawal was below estimates, with 44 Bcf being taken out of storage; storage is now 521 Bcf higher than last year, and 74 Bcf higher than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-yr historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 1/10/20 are a WITHDRAWAL in the range of around 80-90 Bcf.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in July and continued the come off sharply throughout the fall. There was a short price rally in November, but prices are back to hanging around the low point. Currently Henry Hub prices are down around 10% from the 52-week high in April, and below the average by about 5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in June and continued the downward trajectory throughout the summer to hit a low point in late August. Then there was a price jump at the start of September which left prices ranging near the average thru the start of November. Over the past several weeks prices have come off sharply and are now handing around the low point. Currently Algonquin prices are down about 14% from the 52-week high that was last January, and below the average by around 6.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2021 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in June and continued the come off and remain lower for most of the summer. After experiencing lower prices for most of the summer months there was a spike as we entered September that lasted thru the start of November. Since then prices have gradually come off moving towards the low. Currently ISO-NE prices are down around 10.5% from the 52-week high that was last January, and below the average by around 4.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2021 prices had a huge jump in January 2019 when pipeline problems resulted in a pipeline explosion on January 21st. Prices then continued to climb to hit the 52-week a high in April. TETCO-M3 2021 prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in late June and then continued the come off steeply throughout the summer, hitting a low point in August. Prices then spiked as we entered September and continued to climb over the average thru the start of November. Since then prices have fallen off sharply heading toward the low. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down around 10% from the 52-week high in April, and below the average by about 5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in June and continued to range below the average for the rest of the summer and fall. There was a spike in late November when prices went above the average, but since then prices have come off sharply and are now hanging around the low. Currently PJM prices are down around 15% from the 52-week high in January, and below the average by about 6%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

 

General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Patriot Energy does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.

Submit the form below and we will have a representative contact you.
* Required field

Our newsletter provides you timely, insightful energy news gathered from some of the industry’s most trusted news sources.

Subscribe Now

Our no cost Peak Demand Notification Program is a simple solution to lower your energy costs.

Learn More