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Market Update – December 19, 2019

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact Patriot Energy Group for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there si more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the longer term looks, comparing what the market was expecting to be released each week on Thursday at 10:30am ET as the as the injection or withdrawal number versus what actually took place pushes prices up or down respectively.

Estimates for week ending 12/13/19 were for withdrawals that ended up in the 91 to 95 Bcf range. Actual results below:   

Actual withdrawals were well above estimates, with 107 Bcf being taken out of storage; storage is now 618 Bcf higher than last year, and 9 Bcf below than the 5-year average, which is well within the 5-yr historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 12/20/19 are a WITHDRAWAL in the range of around 88-92 Bcf.

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the come off steeply throughout the summer, hitting a low point in August. Prices then had a short-lived price spike as we entered September. For most of October, Henry Hub prices hung near the summer lows after coming off sharply. However, there was a price jump at the end of October that left prices around the average thru the start of November. Since then prices have dropped off precipitously to hit a new low on December 9th. Currently Henry Hub prices are slightly above the low and are down around 17.5% from the 52-week high in March, and below the average by about 11%.  

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the downward trajectory throughout the summer to hit a low point in late August. Then there was a price jump at the start of September which left prices ranging near the average thru the start of November. Over the past several weeks prices have come off sharply to hit a new 52-week low on December 11th.  Currently Algonquin are slightly above the low and are down about 20.5% from the 52-week high that was last January, and below the average by around 12%.  

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the come off and remain low for most of the summer, except for a short-lived price jump at the end of July. After experiencing lower prices for most of the summer months there was a spike as we entered September that lasted thru the start of November. Since then prices have come of sharply to hit a new low on December 13th. Currently ISO-NE prices are just barely above the low, and down around 17% from the 52-week high that was last December, and below the average by around 10%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices had a huge jump in January this year, when pipeline problems resulted in a pipeline explosion on January 21, which was the same day that prices hit the high for the past rolling 52-weeks. Prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in the late spring and continued the come off steeply throughout the summer, hitting a low point in August. Prices then spiked as we entered September and continued to climb thru October, before almost hitting a new high at the start of November. Since then prices have fallen off precipitously to hit a new low on December 11th. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are a little above the low and are down around 15.5% from the 52-week high in January, and below the average by about 9%.  

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued to come off and remain low throughout the summer. After experiencing low prices for most of the summer months, there was a spike as we entered September. Prices continued to climb throughout October and the start of November, with prices going above the average 52-week price. Since then prices have come off sharply and are now approaching the 52-week low point. Currently PJM prices are down around 18% from the 52-week high in January, and below the average by about 10%.  

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

 
General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Patriot Energy does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.

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