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Market Update – October 24, 2019

This market update includes a natural gas storage update, electric and natural gas price movement, and a weather outlook. By utilizing this information, you can make better informed energy decisions. This is general information to give you a quick summary of the market, please contact Patriot Energy Group for additional information.

Natural Gas

The amount of natural gas available for usage is very important in the energy industry because among other things, it is used for heating, and as a main fuel source for generating electricity at power plants to be consumed by both homes and businesses. By comparing current levels of natural gas storage to the levels of last year and the past five years, an assessment as to the state of natural gas supplies to meet demand can be made. With other conditions remaining the same, the general concept is: if there si more than enough supply prices go down, and if there is not enough supply prices go up. In addition to the longer term looks, comparing what the market was expecting to be released each week on Thursday at 10:30am ET as the as the injection or withdrawal number versus what actually took place pushes prices up or down respectively.

Estimates for week ending 10/18/19 were injections of around 88 to 89 Bcf. Actual results below:

Actual injections came in just below estimates, with 87 Bcf being put into storage; storage is now 519 Bcf higher than last year, and 28 Bcf higher than the 5-year avg, which is within the 5-yr historical range.

Early market estimates for the storage report for week ending 10/25/19 are INJECTIONS in the range of around 90-94 Bcf. 

Henry Hub

Henry Hub Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the come off steeply throughout the summer, hitting the lowest point on August 12th. Prices remained low for the rest of August until a price spike as we entered September. For October Henry Hub prices have come off sharply approaching and remaining around the low. Currently Henry Hub prices are down around 15% from the 52-week high in March, and below the average by about 9.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Henry Hub Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

Algonquin City Gate

Algonquin Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the downward trajectory throughout the summer to hit 52-week lows in late August. Since the start of September, we have seen a quick jump in prices off the lows to a halfway point between the low and average. For October prices have come off slightly moving a little closer to the lows from the halfway point between the low and average. Algonquin prices are down about 15.5% from the 52-week high that was last November, and below the average by around 7.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 Algonquin Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

ISO-NE

ISO-NE Wholesale Internal Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the come off and remain low throughout the summer, with the actual low being hit on July 4th. There was a short-lived price jump at the end of July. After experiencing prices near the low for most of the summer months there was a spike as we entered September that has left prices hanging closer to the average. For October, ISO-NE prices have remained hanging below the average, moving a little closer to the halfway point between the low and average. Currently prices are down around 12% from the 52-week high that was last November, and below the average by around 4.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 ISO-NE Internal Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

TETCO-M3

TETCO-M3 Wholesale Calendar Year 2020 prices had a huge jump in January this year, when there were pipeline problems that resulted in an explosion on January 21, which is the same day that prices hit the high for the past rolling 52-weeks. Prices first started trending below the rolling 52-week average in the late spring and continued the come off steeply throughout the summer, hitting the lowest point on August 12th. Prices remained low for the rest of August until a price spike as we entered September. For October TETCO-M3 prices have been bouncing above and below the 52-week rolling average, with more days being above. Currently TETCO-M3 prices are down around 7% from the 52-week high in March, and barely below the average by about 0.15%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 TETCO-M3 Wholesale Natural Gas over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

PJM Western Hub

PJM Wholesale Western Hub Around-the-Clock Calendar Year 2020 prices first started to dip below the rolling 52-week average in the spring and continued the come off and remain low throughout the summer, with the actual low being hit on July 4th. There was a short-lived price jump at the end of July. After experiencing prices near the low for most of the summer months there was a spike as we entered September that has left prices hanging closer to the average. For October prices have continued to climb slightly closer to the average. Currently PJM prices are down around 11% from the 52-week high in January, and below the average by about 3.5%.

The chart below shows the price movement of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over the past 52 weeks which is represented by the blue line. The price of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity is shown on the left axis in relation to date of the pricing on the bottom axis. Also, for comparison there is a green line showing the highest price, an orange line showing the average price, and a red line showing the lowest price over the past 52 weeks.

The chart below on the left is an enhanced look at the price movement shown above of Calendar Year 2020 PJM Western Hub Wholesale Around-the-Clock Electricity over just the past 5 weeks. The table below on the right are the numerical values that correspond to the chart below. The high, low, and average values are still based on the past 52 weeks.

 
General Disclaimer: This information is provided as a courtesy to our clients and/or potential clients and should not be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities based on, or contracts in or for, any energy commodity. Patriot Energy does not sell electricity and/or natural gas, and as such, the actual terms and conditions of competitive supply are solely provided for by the competitive supplier’s contract with the client. Reliance on this information for decisions is done so at the sole risk of the reader and past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is provided as a general description of various electricity and/or natural gas purchasing strategies that may be decided upon by our clients. Both clients and potential clients should consider their individual circumstances and other sources of available information before arriving at a decision. Graphs and charts are for illustrative purposes only.

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